2 Hinomitsuha in 15 runs... what are the odds, eh?

Discussion in 'Monster Farming' started by sgt502, Aug 15, 2017.

  1. sgt502

    sgt502 ばかぷれーやー

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    _20170816_022830.JPG

    I was farming this because I have nothing to do and was hoping Hinomitsuha will invading... and invading she does! Not only once but twice in +/- 15 runs. Thank you RNG gods. Now I have three Hino waifus d(^_^)b

    In case you're wondering, I was farming co-op with my alt using Dios.
    P1: Dios/Dios/Dios/GrOdin/Dark Lady (poor man's Bride Persephone)
    P2: Dios/Dios/Dios/Tengu^Vaan/Green Wisedragon, Bacches

    P1 & P2 Lead Dios and Bacches needs 3-5 SDR or any long assist to counter skill delay. P1 & P2 will have to use sub Dios until F4.

    F1: P1 1 combo
    P2 Dios-Vaan, 5 combo
    F2: P1 GrOdin, 1 combo match heart if any
    P2 1 combo match hear if any
    P1 1 combo match heart if any
    P2 Dios swipe
    F3: P1 Dios swipe
    F4: P2 pass (or 1 combo match heart if any and take a hit)
    P1 Dark Lady-Dios swipe
    F5: P2 Lead Dios swipe
    F6: P1 pass
    P2 Bacches-Dios swipe

    The reason I'm using Bacches is to prepare in case Hinomitsuha invades and I have lots of locked orbs and few enhance green orbs. I realize if I have lots of locked orbs and few enhanced green orbs, I won't be able to kill Hinomitsuha.

    Good luck to you all if you're after Hinomitsuha.
     
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  2. chiubag

    chiubag Well-Known Member

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    The odds are 0.01 X 0.01 = 0.0001 = 0.01%

    (assuming the invade rate is 1%....)
     
  3. Skindy

    Skindy Getting mad, even

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    No - those are the odds of getting two invades in two runs.
    I think the following calc is right - but I'm not completely sure. So until a proper mathematician comes and corrects it...
    You need to calculate odds of getting at least 2 in 15 in two parts - first the odds of getting none in 15 which is .99^15 = 0.86006. Then the odds of getting exactly one = 15x0.01x0.99^14 = 0.13031. Those are the only two ways of failing to get at least two, so their sum = 0.99037 is the chance you don't get at least 2 in 15 rolls. The chance you do get at least two is 1 minus that, = 0.00963 or just under 1%.
    Calculating the odds of getting exactly 2 (and no more) is a bit harder. You need to work out the number of sequence permutations of 2 in 15 tries to do it. It will come out very slightly less than the number above, ie around 0.95%.
     
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  4. tanpopo

    tanpopo adventure!

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    Amazingly I too got 2 hinomitsuhas in something like 15-20 runs. This is after around 50 runs on 2x invade rates to get my first one who I was finishing skillups for.

    I was running ilm/ilm/leilan/baal/sakuya/ilmina, pretty quick solo team. Just need ghetto sdr on one ilm to counter the delay.
     
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  5. sgt502

    sgt502 ばかぷれーやー

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    I got her in this half-stamina descended events. Maybe I should buy a lottery when I got her second invade ^_^;
     
  6. chiubag

    chiubag Well-Known Member

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    omg you're right. shame on me. math was never my strong point.
     

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