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Discussion in 'Rants and Accomplishments' started by bp1976, Mar 1, 2018.
reminder of a darker time in godfests (this was also before you could sell for MP)
I pulled some from the recent fest. I got some things that were interesting, nothing that I was after, but still good cards, diamonds, etc..
I think as time plays on they will tune rates and composition of the fests in order to get the most people participating. Just hope that a bit more refinement will improve the dupe rates I am starting to feel.
New REM is way better if you are a newer player, but the lack of boosted rates for certain pantheons or 6* gfe makes it way harder to get something you actually want from the rem. Getting the third dupe of a 5* star pantheon god is about as good as a siren or golem to me at this point. The only reason i pull the normal rem anymore is because i need fujin. Once i got him i would probably stop rolling in god fests at all as they are right now useless to me.
This is as an niap player for whales it is even worse none of the recent godfests offered any incentive to blow lots of magic stones because they are just 2 days of 6*gfe that will come back in 2 weeks with a slightly changed lineup that hardly matters becuase the important chase cards are always included anyway. A lot of 5* pantheon gods feel almost like silvers right now as hardly any of them are strong leads and most are not even worthy as subs anymore compared to newer cards making them budget subs or inherits...
The big problem is that people were used to the fact that godfests got better and better to get the cards you really wanted and now they just always stay the same and while the rates have gone up on average you hardly benefit from this as a long time player, because its now harder to chase certain cards than it was before.
I feel like its part of a startegy from gh to push collab/seasonal etc. REM more seeing how most of the new top tier cards come from collabs now.
Yes, we remember. It's more of what @BurningMan just said.
For my part, I am a retired whale. My main is only missing 3 old pantheon cards (Neptune, Ame, and Vritra) and 6 of the pre-2017 GFEs (Kaede, Baldin, BSherias, Dandy, Fujin, Raijin). It is getting consistently harder to snag these for my collection due to how the GF is handled now.
Ironically, my Alt has pulled all of those missing cards except Baldin, Fujin and Raijin. Neither of my accounts has one of those, Fuijin being the ONE card that is the MVP card of the game, this is despite the $3K worth of stones that I have invested into the REM while I was a whale.
It would be nice to have the ability to trade REM cards between accounts.
I think you're spot on that it's a psychological thing. Even though the rates are statistically better people don't get hyped for GFs because there's no more 1000x rates announcements.
Yeah they are definitely better than rates were years ago - nothing like spending money to roll a Siren or Machine Golem or Fafnir.
However, I'm not sure if these most recent GF's are better than GF's 6 months ago, when we had 10x rates on featured 6* GFE's, particularly Fujin. Maybe the rates are higher now to roll a 6* GFE in general, but I would be interested in comparing the current rate on Fujin vs the previous featured 10x rate. Maybe someone has access to JP roll data from featured 6* GFE godfests since official rates at the time weren't published?
I posted it earlier in this thread, it was about 0.8% for Yog, Kami, Ney at 10x. (We had Yog twice, Kami and Ney once). You have to search reddit pretty hard to find it, and its just people polling their rolls, so it is by no means conclusive, but it was pretty consistent both times we got the 10x. (Once was on Kami's debut, the other was our PCGF in Oct/Nov). I dont remember us ever having 10x on Fujin, correct me if I am wrong. JP did because they got 3 days of PCGF and 3 boosted cards.
Thanks I must have missed it. So rates are slightly worse now, although they were bad to begin with. I'm pretty sure we had 10x Fujin at least once in November or December. In any event I'm all for transparency, and current REM is a million times better than the early days. Even if a lot of the 5 star rolls have been devalued, at least they aren't farmable.
Been repeating this ad nauseam to a few people who are "done with pad" because of these changes, among other things. At .8% or .6%, unless you are rolling an unspeakable number of packs, the .2% difference means practically nothing. If my bad math is right, if you roll 500 stones at each rate, you have a 55% chance to roll the .8% card, or a 45% chance to roll it at .6%. For most people, your chance of rolling that card is going to come down to dumb luck. Only for people like you who will roll the 8 packs for something, will it even come close to mattering, and even then, you are going to need a little luck on your side as well. People don't see 10x and assume they have no chance of rolling anything now. If I was a rolling that much, I'd be more pissed at how pathetic "10x" truly was.
Ooh okay cool then I am okay with this new system when we get it. Ha I just want cotton to cover blue and light on Rkali...... that's all. Didn't get amatsu.
I just want a Fujin active that's not stuck to an unskillable enhance or evo mat. Is that so wrong? T-T
I'm still holding out hope that the skill ups for the new Celtic pantheon will actually be skillable.
Unless you plan on whaling, you're just going to have to get lucky, just like you would now. Eventually there will be boosted rates, but if you're expecting Cotton to show up at anything higher than a 1-2% chance, you're going to be very disappointed. Remember, this new REM setup was rushed because GH needed to disclose rates. They didn't want to openly post that even at 10x, a featured 6 star would show up less than 1% of the time. Don't mistake that for generosity and increased rates.
Math checks out, with minor caveats. It's a fairly simple function. .992 ^ 100 = 44.78% failure rate for the 0.8 rate case, so about 55% success rate. Taking the power there, 100 times (500 stones = 100 rolls), with the odds being 99.2 percent that you miss gets you the likelihood you miss every time, and the success rate is just the opposite portion. Noting we are taking some quick napkin math liberties here, because often when you succeed somewhere along the way you stop rolling, vs rolling the full set and some sliver of the time actually coming away with more than 1.
(Miss rate for one roll) raised to the power of (number of rolls) = [failure rate for the series of rolls], is simple for anybody to plug into a search engine for a quick math calc.
Just clarifying for anyone in the not so math inclined readership.
Ha woah could you help me with my stats homework?
The answer is "wolfram alpha" or "chegg"
I've whaled during each REM renewal over the years and the changed rates havent made a noticeable difference at all as far as rolling for target gfes goes.
The difference between current rates and previous 10x rates is so small (what is 0.2% tbh) that if you arent doing literal thousands upon thousands of rolls im positive your results wouldnt show much of a difference.
The idea of increased rates for specific GFEs was bait to get people to roll just because of the false hope of the slightly boosted rate
and because it benefits gungho's profits, I'm sure once the novelty of the renewal rates wears off (ie very soon in JP at least), they will start doing something like "18 GFE w/ 2 at 2x rates (which would end up being a lot higher than the previous 10x rates).
Or more things like that 6* super godfest in Japan (which was quite literally the same rates as 10x rates for EVERY 6* GFE).
10x godfests benefit gungho more by baiting whales than they benefit the whales themselves, honestly.
If you want multiple 6* GFEs then the current rates are much kinder in that regard.
When rates of a specific 6* are so low, the extra 0.2% wont be making much of a difference. Whaled before, no Escha (my white whale). Whaled after, still no escha
I do have this though (0 of which came from a 10x cotton gfe)
another fun fact:
on the raijin/kami -> fujin/yog 10x(5x?) pair of godfest days, I rolled a few packs during the Raijin/Kami day and got 2 6* GFEs: Fujin dupe and Yog
You are right that the higher rates don't make too much difference for the 6 stars, but my point isn't that it makes it super easy to get them it's that it gives a better incentive to buy tons of magic stones to finally get that card since slightly higher chances are still better than the same chances as always.
What primarily annoys me is the lack of featured pantheons its much harder to get a 6 star pantheon god now than it was before because they have really shitty rates during god fests..
I dunno. How are 90 percent of your stats problem not trivial solves with this or that search engine / YouTube explanatory topic video / homework sharing forum / minor coding. Homework seems so easy to me these days, as a 43 year old looking back with pepperidge farms on how we did things pre modern internet.
People will bitch at you about not sharing with remixes, but that's bullshit. 80 percent of your professional life will involve working collaboratively on teams, sharing and tweaking and poaching and innovating, even when you are nominally an individual contributor. Just don't be that dumbo that doesn't actually understand the topic or do any productive work. A good work ethic and remixing with improvements what's already out there is basically most of modern corporate life, and a fair bit of noncorporate.
In stats, there's an awesomesauce coding language, R, that just straight up kills it at rapidly tossing together easy peasy sophisticated analysis / regression curves / stats, etc. Really nice, used by a lot of noncoder chemists and physic guys and random layperson peeps but they write a little analysis code of their science work/papers/etc stuff. If you get the chance, I recommend it.